The Article by Dina Al-Tawila

Blogger - Content Creator - and Peace Ambassador for Global Peace Let's Talk International - UK

How much do you imagine there will be conflict over water in the world, both now and in the not-too-distant future? Is this conflict primarily between developed countries, excluding poor or developing nations? Or are developing countries truly the ones most affected by climate change, given the existence of a real phenomenon called "climate injustice"? Let's examine this issue more closely...

An Introduction

The world today, at the end of 2026, is rife with wars here and there. The weapons used today are either biological weapons—such as pandemics or insects created through robotic or genetic engineering—or internationally unauthorized chemical warfare, and others. But what we haven't heard of or expected is that the wars being waged will be over the amount of water an individual receives per year. Can you imagine that? Let's start with some information about developed countries—yes, you read that right—that don't have enough water to meet their populations' needs. But why has this happened and will continue to happen? Simply because of climate change. Is that plausible? Yes, just read this statement with me: (UN Secretary-General António Guterres's statement reflects a very strong warning: "We have moved from the era of global warming to the era of global boiling," indicating that the climate crisis is no longer just a gradual change in temperatures, but has reached a dangerous level that directly threatens human life and ecosystems.) This means that if we haven't woken up yet, it's not a choice to act; it's a matter of survival for you, your children, and let's not even mention your grandchildren... Let's delve into the depths of this issue as much as we can understand...

First: Did you know?

The World Bank defines water scarcity as when the population of a given area has access to less than 1,000 cubic meters of freshwater per capita annually.

The percentage of freshwater in the world is

2.5%, and only about 0.4% of that is readily available to meet human needs. Furthermore, renewable freshwater levels are declining as a result of human activity and climate change. This means that by 2025, an estimated 1.8 billion people will be living in areas experiencing absolute water scarcity.

According to a report by the Water Resources 2030 Group,

water use in agriculture (particularly in developing countries) will increase to 4,500 billion cubic meters by 2030. In China alone, industrial water demand could reach 265 billion cubic meters. Without widespread improvements in water use efficiency over the next 16 years, demand will exceed reliable water supplies by 40%.

The following are some of the reasons for global water scarcity

The shift from climate change to climate volatility

Population growth

Industrialization

All of these factors lead to a rapid depletion of water resources.

Although water covers approximately 70% of the Earth's surface, water, especially drinking water, is not as abundant as one might think. Only 3% of it is fresh.

Second: Water Scarcity in Developed Countries

1. The Tibetan Plateau (The Roof of the World)

Surrounded by some of the world’s largest economies and populations, the Tibetan Plateau’s meltwater basins and rivers are experiencing increasing demand. China, India, Pakistan, and Nepal are competing to build more than 400 hydroelectric power plants, and the impact of this on major rivers such as the Ganges, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Yangtze remains to be seen.

Where is the Tibetan Plateau (The Roof of the World) located?

The Tibetan Plateau, also known as the “Roof of the World,” is located in the northwestern part of Yunnan Province and extends across the west-central part of Sichuan Province, south of Shanghai in western China. Its vast size and high elevation make it one of the world’s most prominent geographical features.

2. Southeast Asia

China is also embroiled in water disputes in Southeast Asia, and its massive dams on the Mekong River have significantly impacted food security in both Cambodia and Vietnam. Adding to the tension in the region’s water politics, Laos is now also planning to build a dam on the Mekong, prompting protests from Cambodia. While smaller Southeast Asian nations are unlikely to initiate a conflict with China over water, clashes among themselves are another matter entirely.

3. Central Asia

Similarly, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are planning to build massive hydroelectric dams upstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers. This will reduce water supplies for both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, a matter of particular concern to Uzbekistan’s cotton industry. The threat these upstream projects pose to downstream livelihoods is very real; the president of Uzbekistan has even warned that dam construction could lead to war.

4. The Blue Nile

The Nile has long been a source of instability in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. When Ethiopia announced its plans to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 (to be constructed by China), the Egyptian government protested vehemently. Not only does the dam disregard legal treaties that grant Egypt veto power over such construction, but it is also likely to further restrict water flows. If the dam does indeed have a significant impact on regional water supplies, conflicts will erupt rapidly. These hotspots raise immediate concerns, but as water scarcity worsens, more areas of instability are likely to emerge. However, water conflicts do not necessarily have to be cross-border; they can easily erupt within a single country, as Iraq is currently experiencing.

5. Cape Town

Cape Town faces an unenviable situation: it is the first major city in modern times to face the threat of running out of drinking water. However, the plight of this drought-stricken South African city is just one stark example of a problem that experts have long warned about: water scarcity.

6. São Paulo

Brazil’s financial capital, and one of the world’s ten most populous cities, experienced a similar crisis to Cape Town’s in 2015, when its main reservoir dropped to less than 4% of its capacity. At the height of the crisis, the city of over 21.7 million people went without water for nearly 20 days, and police had to escort water trucks to prevent looting. The drought that plagued southeastern Brazil between 2014 and 2017 is believed to have been the cause, but a UN mission to São Paulo criticized the state authorities’ “lack” of proper planning and investment. The water crisis was considered “over” in 2016, but in January 2017, the main reserves were 15% lower than projected for that period, casting renewed doubt on the city’s future water supply.

7. Bangalore, India

Local officials in the southern Indian city of Bangalore have been overwhelmed by the surge in new real estate developments that followed its rise as a technology hub, and are struggling to manage the city’s water and sewage systems. To make matters worse, the city’s aging plumbing systems are in dire need of repair; a national government report found that the city loses more than half of its drinking water to waste. Like China, India suffers from water pollution, and Bangalore is no exception: a comprehensive inventory of the city’s lakes revealed that 85% of them contain water used only for irrigation and industrial cooling. Not a single lake contained water suitable for drinking or bathing.

8. Beijing

In 2014, each of Beijing’s more than 20 million residents had only 145 cubic meters of water. China is home to nearly 20% of the world’s population but possesses only 7% of the world’s freshwater. A Columbia University study estimated that the country’s water reserves declined by 13% between 2000 and 2009. Graphene sieves convert seawater into potable water. China also faces a pollution problem. Official figures from 2015 showed that 40% of Beijing’s surface water was so polluted that it was unsuitable for agricultural or industrial use. Chinese authorities have attempted to address the problem by establishing large-scale water diversion projects, launching educational programs, and raising water prices for large corporations.

9 - Egypt

Once a cornerstone of one of the world's greatest civilizations, the Nile River now faces severe water scarcity. It provides 97% of Egypt's water supply but also becomes a dumping ground for increasing amounts of untreated agricultural and residential waste. World Health Organization figures indicate that Egypt ranks high among lower-middle-income countries in terms of waterborne deaths. The United Nations estimates that the country will face critical water shortages by 2025.

10. Jakarta, Indonesia

Like many coastal cities, the Indonesian capital faces the threat of rising sea levels. But in Jakarta, the problem has been exacerbated by direct human intervention. Because less than half of the city’s 10 million residents have access to piped water, illegal well drilling is widespread. This practice depletes the aquifer, almost emptying it. As a result, about 40% of Jakarta now lies below sea level, according to World Bank estimates. To make matters worse, the aquifer is not replenished despite heavy rainfall because the proliferation of concrete and asphalt prevents open fields from absorbing rainwater.

11. Moscow, Russia

Russia holds a quarter of the world’s freshwater reserves, yet the country suffers from pollution problems stemming from the industrial legacy of the Soviet era. This is particularly concerning for Moscow, where 70% of the water supply relies on surface water. Official regulatory bodies acknowledge that between 35% and 60% of Russia’s total drinking water reserves do not meet sanitary standards.

12 - Istanbul

According to official Turkish government figures, the country is suffering from a water crisis, with per capita water availability falling below 1,700 cubic meters in 2016. Local experts have warned that the situation could worsen and lead to water scarcity by 2030. In recent years, densely populated areas like Istanbul (14 million inhabitants) have begun experiencing water shortages during the dry season. The city's reservoirs were below 30% of their capacity at the beginning of 2014.

13 - Mexico City

Water shortages are nothing new for many of Mexico City's 21 million residents. One in five residents receives only a few hours of tap water per week, while another 20% receive running water for only part of the day. The city imports up to 40% of its water from distant sources but lacks large-scale wastewater recycling facilities. Water losses due to pipe network problems are estimated at 40%.

14. London

Of all the cities in the world, London isn't the first that comes to mind when you think of water scarcity. The reality is quite different. With an average annual rainfall of around 600 mm (less than Paris and only half the average for New York), London gets 80% of its water from rivers (the Thames and the Lea). According to the Greater London Authority, the city is nearing its maximum capacity and is likely to face supply problems by 2025 and "severe shortages" by 2040. Hose bans seem likely to become more common in the future.

15. Tokyo

The Japanese capital enjoys rainfall levels similar to those of Seattle on the US West Coast, known for its heavy rainfall. However, the rain falls during only four months of the year. This water must be collected, as a drier-than-expected rainy season could lead to drought. Tokyo has at least 750 private and public buildings equipped with rainwater harvesting and utilization systems. Tokyo, with a population of over 30 million, relies on surface water (rivers, lakes, and snowmelt) for 70% of its water supply. Recent investment in pipeline infrastructure aims to reduce leakage losses to just 3% in the near future.

16 - Miami, USA

Florida is among the five states most affected by rainfall annually. Yet, a crisis looms in its most famous city, Miami. An early 20th-century project to drain nearby swamps has had an unintended consequence: Atlantic Ocean water has contaminated the Biscayne Aquifer, the city's primary source of fresh water. This seawater pollution threatens Miami's water supply. Although the problem was identified in the 1930s, seawater continues to seep in, especially as the city has experienced an accelerating rate of sea-level rise, breaching underground barriers constructed in recent decades. Neighboring cities are already suffering from the problem. Hallandale Beach, located a few miles north of Miami, has had to shut down six of its eight wells due to saltwater intrusion.

In conclusion,

Having examined the state of potable water for drinking, agriculture, and other uses across the developed and developing world, we must now focus on open water sources, including groundwater, rivers, and artificial lakes. Polluting water sources under the guise of protesting government actions will not lead to accountability from international bodies—even developed countries face this issue—but will ultimately harm the citizens of the country where it is located. We must be more civilized in our criticism of government performance, avoiding actions that ultimately harm us rather than them. In the second article on this same topic, we will explore global measures for countries most affected by water scarcity in the near future, and whether Egypt has a role in these measures. Until then, we thank you for carefully reading the simplified information presented in this article, and we hope that we all act responsibly, whether we are government officials, supporters, or even opponents of the state and its policies.